# ESA tribunal success rates — the real numbers

Every figure on this page is from the official HMCTS Tribunals statistics quarterly release (April to June 2026, Main Tables table SSCS_3, ESA column), checked at source on 9 October 2026. Provisional figures are marked (p); revised figures (r).

The headline, and the trap

45.7% of ESA appeals cleared at a hearing in Q1 2026/27 (April–June 2026, provisional) were decided in the claimant's favour — the DWP decision was overturned, revised or substituted.

The trap: forums often quote the PIP tribunal overturn rate — 67% in the same quarter — as if it applied to ESA. It does not. ESA appeals have a different case-mix (many are fit-for-work decisions rather than daily-living awards), and the ESA overturn rate has consistently run around 45% in recent quarters. Plan your appeal around the ESA numbers.

ESA appeals cleared at hearing, by outcome

| Period | Cleared at hearing | % in claimant's favour | % decision upheld |

|---|---|---|---|

| Q1 2026/27 (Apr–Jun 2026) (p) | 497 | 45.7% | 53.9% |

| Q1 2025/26 (Apr–Jun 2025) (r) | 718 | 45.1% | 54.5% |

| Q1 2024/25 (Apr–Jun 2024) (r) | 1,201 | 44.5% | 54.9% |

Annual volumes of ESA appeals cleared at hearing: 4,364 in 2024/25 (revised) and 2,140 in 2025/26 (revised) — the falling volume partly reflects claims migrating to Universal Credit, whose appeals are counted separately.

Reading the numbers honestly

• These percentages cover appeals that reached a hearing. They are not "45% of all ESA decisions are wrong" — most decisions are never appealed at all.
• The remaining small share of disposals (withdrawn, or consolidated) sits outside both percentages.
• Some additional cases end in the claimant's favour before a hearing, when the DWP revises its own decision after reviewing the appeal grounds.
• Outcomes depend on evidence. The single biggest predictor is whether your written evidence speaks directly to the descriptors in the Work Capability Assessment.

What this means for your appeal

A ~45% hearing success rate means preparation genuinely moves the needle: you are not fighting a formality, and you are not buying a lottery ticket. Target the specific descriptors, bring dated evidence, and if you can, get medical records that speak to the same descriptors the decision maker relied on.

Independent information directory · Source-checked 2026-10-09 · Independent information — not legal or benefits advice; not affiliated with the DWP.